Policy support combined with intensified tin ore shortages: Tin price growth momentum awaits further release [SMM Tin Morning Meeting Summary]

Recently, Sheng Laiyun, Deputy Director of the NBS, summarized China's economic performance for the first three quarters at a press conference held by the State Council Information Office and expressed confidence in achieving the annual economic growth target. Against this backdrop, the solder industry, as a crucial part of industrial production, has seen its market performance and tin price trends garner significant attention. According to industry feedback, the overall performance of the solder market in September was positive, with an increase in order volume. This is a positive signal of gradually recovering downstream and end-use consumption, also boosted by pre-holiday stockpiling. However, companies focusing on photovoltaic welding strips felt the market chill, as orders from photovoltaic products did not meet expectations. This disparity reflects the current complexity in the demand structure within the solder industry. Entering October, due to production department holidays during the holiday period and the impact of prior stockpiling, some downstream solder companies expect a MoM decline in production for the month. Meanwhile, the post-holiday weakening of tin prices has not effectively stimulated purchasing enthusiasm among end-use companies, and market sentiment remains cautious. This situation indicates that short-term tin price growth momentum is insufficient, with market participants maintaining a cautious attitude amid price fluctuations. Notably, recent developments in the Wa State region have drawn market attention, with some companies holding a short-term bearish view on tin prices, awaiting more favorable restocking and purchasing opportunities. This shift in market sentiment has impacted tin price trends, adding to market uncertainty. From a macro perspective, although the state has introduced a series of policies to stabilize growth and is gradually implementing them, the full release of these policy effects will take time. Against this backdrop, the growth of tin solder production may be somewhat constrained, and tin prices will seek a new equilibrium in the tug-of-war between sellers and buyers. In summary, current tin prices face multiple influencing factors, with short-term market sentiment dominated by a wait-and-see attitude, and growth momentum awaits further release.